Building on record growth of 354 million in 2004, net additions are again expected to exceed 350 million in 2005 (including PHS). This is because the rapid growth in key developing markets will not be offset by a decline in mature markets to the extent previously expected, according to Informa Telecom and Media’s World Cellular Information Service.

Reductions in access fees in rapidly expanding markets such as Nigeria and Mexico have had an impact on short-term growth. Meanwhile, Informa Telecoms & Media has also revised its achievable penetration rates upwards for key markets such as China, Russia and Indonesia as a result of network expansion into regional markets and operator schemes to encourage the uptake of subscriptions among lower-income segments of the population. The Russian mobile market grew by 89% in 2004 on the back of four previous years of annual growth in excess of 100% and Russia alone is forecast to account for 43% of net additions in Central and Eastern Europe in 2005-2010. The Chinese mobile market, which exceeded the 400-million-subscription mark in March 2005, is forecast to grow by 65% by the end of 2010. Indonesia is forecast to exceed 50 million subscriptions in 2007.

In mature markets operators and MVNOs are successfully targeting new niche markets, such as the under-14 age group, while growth in the number of mobile users with multiple subscriptions shows no sign of abating. A number of major markets, such as Italy, the UK, Sweden and Hong Kong have already exceeded 100% penetration and other markets that could follow suit before the end of 2005 are Austria, Denmark, Ireland and Portugal.

According to Informa Telecoms & Media’s World Cellular Information Service the global penetration rate is just 28%, meaning that there are still more than four billion potential new mobile users worldwide, representing a tremendous opportunity for the industry.

© "Informa Telecom"