Смогут ли сети широкополосного доступа обеспечить взрывной рост потребностей в видеотрафике?

Таким вопросом задались аналитики Analysys Mason в ходе подготовки своего очередного исследования. По заданию регулятора из Объединенного Королевства, компании Ofcom, аналитическое агентство Analysys Mason провело исследование, темой которого стала доставка высококачественных видеоуслуг в режиме онлайн. Целью исследование было изучить воздействия, которые может оказывать возможность обеспечения массового рынка высококачественными видеоуслугами по интернет в Объединенном королевстве, и какие регуляторные меры, если они необходимы, следовало бы предпринять для того, чтобы справиться с проблемами, которые могут возникать.

Отчет "Delivering High Quality Video Services Online" (на английском языке, в формате Adobe Acrobat, .pdf) можно скачать здесь ->>

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Given the increasing usage of services, such as the BBC iPlayer, we identify in the report the key economic and technical barriers to the wider adoption of such services. We have not directly addressed next generation access (NGA) as this is part of other workstreams. Instead we focus on the backhaul and core networks of broadband operators, and the cost implications of significant increases in broadband traffic.

As part of this study we:

• Consulted with a range of stakeholders to identify the key trends in demand for online video services; the ability of networks to support this growth; and the changing business models to support online video services

• Constructed demand forecasts for four scenarios that captured the different drivers for the growth in online video; these demand forecasts included both changes in viewing habits and the impact of these upon the bandwidth required on broadband networks

• Examined how increased broadband traffic would impact the core, backhaul and access networks of broadband operators

• Identified a range of technological solutions (e.g. multicasting, caching, traffic shaping) that could minimise the impact of increased traffic upon broadband networks

• Quantified the costs for different types of operators (i.e. LLU and bitstream) of the different demand scenarios with, and without, technical solutions such as multicasting, caching and traffic shaping Assessed whether there were any economic barriers that would limit the investment required to support the growth of online video services Identified a number of potential sources for additional revenue to support online video; these included both retail and wholesale "two-sided" business models

• Identified five specific areas that could have regulatory implications for Ofcom.

The key conclusions of our study are:

• The timely migration to 21CN and the availability of high-speed access networks will be important in enabling the significant take-up of high quality online video services

• Increased video traffic could be accommodated by increasing the total bandwidth available using existing technologies; it is not essential to deploy advanced technologies to prioritise video traffic over other types of traffic in order to ensure a high QoS for video services

• If video services are to continue to develop without leading to significant increases in costs to service providers, there will have to be a considerable reduction in the cost per Mbit/s of bitstream products; this should be achievable once BT Wholesale has fully migrated to 21CN

• Even with aggressive user demand predictions, the cost implications may not be excessive if future bitstream pricing benefits from the economies of scale that fibre-based backhaul products offer unbundlers today, and if there are technological advances that further reduce the cost per Mbit/s

• Finally, innovative business models might be limited by regulation: in the event that the ability to develop and deploy novel approaches was restricted by new regulation, this might curb the potential for growth in online video services.

Source: Analysys Mason' press-release