MOBILE ENTERTAINMENT, written by analysts from research house Informa Telecoms & Media over the last six months, predicts that the global market for mobile entertainment will be worth $42.8 billion by 2010.

The report explores the entertainment sectors that are driving growth – including music, gambling, games video and TV, and adult content – and identifies the opportunities, challenges and threats the industry faces if the mobile entertainment market is to reach its full potential.

Emerging new markets such as mobile TV, user generated services and personalisation (graphics and visual themes) are forecast to contribute a further $11 billion in revenues by 2010 as the market develops and expands.

Music

The value of audio-based mobile music services is set to double in the five years to 2010, by which time they will exceed $11 billion, according to the report. Although the majority of revenue will still come from ringtones, the forecast growth in the ring-back tone and full track download sectors confirms that the mobile phone is becoming a credible music device.

A large sector of both the mobile and the music industries have galvanised around mobile music and for the last year have been helping to progress this sector. Handset manufacturers are devoting significant energy into creating sophisticated music devices and operators have been busy rolling out advanced music download services.

According to Simon Dyson, co-author of the report, “the growth of mobile music has been astounding, from a cottage industry making basic monophonic ringtones in 1998 to a multi-billion dollar global business on which the music industry is staking much of its future”.

The idea of the mobile phone as an ‘iPod Killer’ has gained momentum recently, spurred on by the release of handsets with MP3 functionality and high capacity hard drives. Yet, just as camera phones did not suddenly destroy the digital camera business, the report finds that MP3-enabled phones will not seriously damage the digital music player market in the immediate future.

Games

Total global revenues from mobile games are forecast to increase from $2.6 billion this year to $11.2 billion by 2010. Downloads will account for around two-thirds of total global revenues through 2010, but online multiplayer traffic will start to generate significant income for mobile operators, as cellcos launch more multiplayer games and introduce community features that will encourage user uptake. By 2010, online multiplayer games will generate 20.5 percent of total global revenues.

“The Asia-Pacific and Europe will continue to dominate the global mobile gaming market in terms of revenues and users, ”says Stuart Dredge, co-author of the report. “However, the U.S. is set to become the second largest individual market by revenues and users, behind Japan and China respectively, by 2010.”

Meanwhile the mobile games industry still has work to do to encourage mass-market adoption of mobile games. This year, just 6.7 percent of all mobile subscribers globally will download and play a mobile game, rising to 15.2 percent by 2010.

Gambling

The market for mobile gambling content is predicted to rise from US$1.2bn of annual revenues in 2005 to US$7.6bn by 2010, by which time there will be more than 200 million consumers gambling using their mobiles. However, to reach this goal, operators and the companies who run mobile gambling services will have to negotiate legislative, technological and cultural hurdles.

Europe is likely to remain the largest market for mobile gambling, generating US$3.2bn of annual revenues by 2010. However, it will be closely followed by Asia-Pacific, which is forecast to generate US$2.7bn by 2010. North America is the great unknown, as the size of the market there depends first on mobile gambling being legalized in the U.S., and then on which restrictions are placed upon it. Nevertheless, the report predicts US$979 million of annual revenues for the region by 2010.

“Mobile gambling is already generating significant revenues, but there is room for sharp growth in the years ahead,” says Stuart Dredge, the report’s author. “Operators recognise that there is a strong demand for mobile gambling services, and there is no shortage of companies looking to provide them. However, the industry must keep in mind its responsibilities to tackle underage and problem gambling.”

Adult

The market for erotic content for mobile devices is predicted to be worth $2.3bn by 2010, but realisation of this is highly dependent on mobile phone carriers and content providers working with regulators in order to determine solid controls and age verification procedures. The report estimates that by 2010, there will be over 114 million regular users of mobile adult content globally.

"The key to turning erotic mobile content into a sustainable revenue stream is to adopt a responsible approach, making sure subscribers who wish to view such content are age verified and that those providers who are looking to make a quick buck are squeezed out of the equation", said Daniel Winterbottom, senior research analyst at Informa and author of the report.

About the Mobile Entertainment report

Now in its third edition, Mobile Entertainment: Applications and Markets is the authoritative 5-volume guide to key mobile data traffic and revenue drivers in the mobile entertainment sector - covering mobile music, mobile gambling, mobile gaming, adult services, images, personalisation and video. It will be published in August. The authors of he report are Richard Jesty, Daniel Winterbottom, Pamela Clarke-Dickson, Simon Dyson, Steve Mayall, Stuart Dredge. Full biographies are available from the PR contacts listed above.

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